Bracket-busting for Dummies

It's that time of year. The ESPN networks are inundated with Jay Bilas and Joe Lunardi and that weasel Doug Gottleib. It's the one time of year we care about Sam Houston State and Belmont and Indiana State.

Kelly green looks good on everyone!

Dick Vitale's doctor is constantly on-call and Digger Phelps buys at least ten more ugly ties.

It's March Madness. It's sports heaven.

It's bracket time.

It's the time of year that every guy and a lot of awesome ladies (I know Texie falls in this category) has random ten- and five-dollar bills in their pockets on the off chance someone has a bracket pool going.

It's the time of year where somehow your best friend's girlfriend gets second place "because tigers wearing purple could never beat a black and red bearcat," (Which is true.. LSU sucks).

So what are the secrets? How does one win? Here's the no-guarantee, fool-proof way to (possibly) win your brackets.


Rule One: Make sure you go game by game. 

Picking the champion and then making your bracket fit accordingly is just ridiculous. Each match-up is unique and needs proper attention. You can't pick Pittsburgh to go to the Final Four if you don't even know who they'll play in the Sweet Sixteen.

Start with day one, top left. Work your way straight down. Move to the top right. Work your way straight down. Move to day two and repeat.

Try to make your winners fit the bracket. Not the other way around.

Rule Two: Ignore your alma mater.

I can't emphasize this one more. You know what I'm not doing this year? Picking Notre Dame to win the championship. You know what my friend Pete shouldn't do? Pick Purdue to win the championship.

The reason for this is three-parted:

1. Your favorite team probably isn't nearly as good as you think it is. It's just that simple.
2. Getting second place in your pool but watching your favorite team surprise you and win the tournament anyway is priceless. At least I assume it would be. It's win-win.
3. It's never good to have heart and finances riding on one game. It's why people have strokes and gambling problems.

On the other side, you should also not pick against teams who you consider even remotely close to rivals. You know why? They're probably way better than you think they are. Ask me again why I never make money off of Syracuse.

Rule Three: Rock beats scissors. Gut beats brain.

To be bluntly honest, sometimes your gut is smarter than your brain. Especially if you watch a lot of college basketball. You'll sit there and stare at a twelve-seeded Michigan State vs. five-seeded Xavier (a possible first round according to Lunardi).

You'll say to yourself, "Never bet against Tom Izzo in the tournament...but Xavier pushes for the sweet sixteen every year!..Michigan State is due and I always pick a twelve-seed to upset a five."

You know what? Stop talking to yourself. Close your eyes and take a deep breath. Michigan State sucks this year and you know it.

Remember, sometimes it's not "too obvious."

Rule Four: Globetrotters trump Bangers.

Also known as the Big East vs. the ACC rule, it basically says that the NCAA prefers its basketball to be fast-paced and completely non-physical. When filling out your bracket, remember that odds are, most Big East, and other physical, teams will not be able to adjust to the fluid, sissy style of basketball that NCAA referees seem to prefer in the tournament.

Rule Five: Some trends rarely, if ever, change.

Here are a list of things that I've noticed are as much a staple of the NCAA tournament as hearing "One Shining Moment":

How do you not give calls to this pretty face?

• There will, in fact, be at least one twelve-seed to upset a five-seed. Since 1985 and the beginning of the 64 team tournament, the five-seed is a mere 69-35 against the twelve-seed (66.35%).
• It's true, you shouldn't bet against Tom Izzo in the tournament.
• At least one mid-major (at best) team will make the sweet sixteen. If you have a hunch that Richmond can make it to the second weekend, you're probably still wrong. It'll be Belmont just to make you mad.
• Referees will be responsible for at least ten points a game for certain teams: Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky and Kansas (among others) will receive gift calls throughout the tournament. It's just the way it is.
• Mid-majors who receive top-four seedings are always disappointments. Butler last year was a rare exception.
• In a related trend, Gonzaga sucks. Mark Few cannot coach in the tournament. They've been overrated for a decade now and never stop disappointing their fans.
• And every year, without exception, I remember what a completely terrible song "One Shining Moment" is. I mean seriously, it's awful.

Rule Six: Have fun.

The basketball gods know when you take these things too seriously and they will do anything to get you committed into a psych ward.

Relax. Breathe.

And good luck.